Bilateral Trade Imbalances

Author(s)
Alejandro Cunat, Robert Zymek
Abstract

If sectoral trade flows obey structural gravity, countries’ bilateral trade imbalances are the result of macro trade imbalances, “triangular trade”, or pairwise asymmetric trade barriers. Using data for 40 major economies and the Rest of the World, we show that large and pervasive asymmetries in trade barriers are required to account for most of the observed variation in bilateral imbalances. A dynamic quantitative trade model suggests that eliminating these asymmetries would significantly reduce bilateral (but not macro) imbalances and have sizeable impacts on welfare. We provide evidence that the asymmetries we measure are in part related to the policy environment: trade inside the European Single Market appears to be subject to more bilaterally symmetric frictions. Extending the same symmetry to all parts of the global economy would give a large boost to the real incomes of several non-E.U. countries.

Organisation(s)
Department of Economics
External organisation(s)
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Journal
Review of Economic Studies
Volume
91
Pages
1537-1583
No. of pages
47
ISSN
0034-6527
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdad052
Publication date
02-2023
Peer reviewed
Yes
Austrian Fields of Science 2012
502018 Macroeconomics
Keywords
ASJC Scopus subject areas
Economics, Econometrics and Finance(all), Economics and Econometrics
Portal url
https://ucrisportal.univie.ac.at/en/publications/bilateral-trade-imbalances(4c6dbe39-3f75-4350-9c31-1b87555bf7a0).html