Resource Discoveries and the Political Survival of Dictators

Author(s)
Alexandra Brausmann, Elise Grieg
Abstract

We study the effect of resource discoveries on dictator failure. We extend existing
conflict literature by developing a dynamic stochastic model where timing of attack and probability of success are endogenous. Incumbent and opposition invest in military arsenals which determine success probability, while opposition also chooses when to stage a coup. A resource discovery delays the attack and reduces the probability of overthrow. We test these hypotheses using duration models and timing of giant oil and gas discoveries, finding that large discoveries more than double remaining time until failure and reduce hazard faced by an autocrat by 30 - 50%.

Organisation(s)
Department of Economics
External organisation(s)
Menon Economics
Journal
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management
Volume
124
ISSN
0095-0696
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2024.102927
Publication date
01-2024
Peer reviewed
Yes
Austrian Fields of Science 2012
502027 Political economy
Keywords
ASJC Scopus subject areas
Economics and Econometrics, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
Portal url
https://ucrisportal.univie.ac.at/en/publications/resource-discoveries-and-the-political-survival-of-dictators(8208524b-484c-4954-8ba4-6818ea9d70f8).html