Resource Discoveries and the Political Survival of Dictators
- Author(s)
- Alexandra Brausmann, Elise Grieg
- Abstract
We study the effect of resource discoveries on dictator failure. We extend existing
conflict literature by developing a dynamic stochastic model where timing of attack and probability of success are endogenous. Incumbent and opposition invest in military arsenals which determine success probability, while opposition also chooses when to stage a coup. A resource discovery delays the attack and reduces the probability of overthrow. We test these hypotheses using duration models and timing of giant oil and gas discoveries, finding that large discoveries more than double remaining time until failure and reduce hazard faced by an autocrat by 30 - 50%.- Organisation(s)
- Department of Economics
- External organisation(s)
- Menon Economics
- Journal
- Journal of Environmental Economics and Management
- Volume
- 124
- ISSN
- 0095-0696
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2024.102927
- Publication date
- 01-2024
- Peer reviewed
- Yes
- Austrian Fields of Science 2012
- 502027 Political economy
- Keywords
- ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Economics and Econometrics, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
- Portal url
- https://ucris.univie.ac.at/portal/en/publications/resource-discoveries-and-the-political-survival-of-dictators(8208524b-484c-4954-8ba4-6818ea9d70f8).html