Predicting Lotto Numbers
- Author(s)
- Sigrid Suetens, Claus B. Galbo-Jorgensen, Jean-Robert Tyran
- Abstract
We investigate the "law of small numbers" using a data set on lotto gambling that allows us to measure players' reactions to draws. While most players pick the same set of numbers week after week, we find that those who do change, react on average as predicted by the law of small numbers as formalized in recent behavioral theory. In particular, players tend to bet less on numbers that have been drawn in the preceding week, as suggested by the "gambler's fallacy", and bet more on a number if it was frequently drawn in the recent past, consistent with the "hot-hand fallacy".
- Organisation(s)
- Department of Economics, Vienna Center for Experimental Economics
- External organisation(s)
- University of Copenhagen, Tilburg University
- Journal
- Journal of the European Economic Association
- Volume
- 14
- Pages
- 584-607
- No. of pages
- 24
- ISSN
- 1542-4766
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1111/jeea.12147
- Publication date
- 08-2015
- Peer reviewed
- Yes
- Austrian Fields of Science 2012
- 502045 Behavioural economics
- Keywords
- ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Economics, Econometrics and Finance(all)
- Portal url
- https://ucris.univie.ac.at/portal/en/publications/predicting-lotto-numbers(04e1f2a9-8828-4a8d-8c93-92f306195c64).html